Lethality in Roleplaying Small Arms Systems

Original by Frank A Chadwick, submitted by J Roberston

I got this off the Traveller Mailing List a couple of weeks ago. I meant to post it during the firearms debate last week, but, well, you know how time goes ballistic proportional to the amount of pleasure you derive.

It was originally posted by Loren K. Wiseman, in response to complaints various people had regarding lethality in Traveller: The New Era (or the New Errata, depending on your preference).

I’m sorry I don’t still have copies of the discussion that followed. You’ll notice that one particular officer acquitted himself quite well; however, a number of the ‘hits’ counted for the group were against each other. There are other questionable interpretations, but the accounts provided should provide an adequate description of what guns can do to people, from the low to high end of possibilities.

I know of few issues in roleplaying systems that cause as much passionate argument as do small arms fire, both hit probability and damage. Over the years I have heard repeated complaints about the “low lethality” of what was originally the Twilight: 2000 combat system, and which is now GDW’s core roleplaying system. I don’t know how many times I’ve heard actually angry gamers tell me that they can hit a man-size target 100% of the time at X range, and our rules are BS because they have less than a 50% chance, or even worse. Or that this wound or that wound might or might not knock someone down in the game, but in “real life” would invariably prove fatal.

It’s always been my feeling that these arguments produce a great deal more heat than light, and are usually based on personal prejudice and repeated viewings of Hollywood war movies, rather than a serious examination of facts. So in the spirit of casting real light on the subject, I’d like to present a series of actual close range combat shootings, all drawn from the experiences of the San Diego Police Department’s experimental Border Crime Task Force during the eighteen months of its existence.

A rugged area of undeveloped canyons and gullies along the US-Mexican border between San Diego and Tijuana was the site of numerous nocturnal border crosing by illegal aliens. That was the responsibility of the US Imigration Service. But the people coming north illegally were being systematically brutalized by gangs of crooks - robbery, assault, and rape were commonplace, and as the violence escallated murder would be as well. That was the responsibility of the San Diego Police Department, since this area of rugged ravines, even though a barren wilderness, was inside the city limits.

The Task Force members, fewer than a dozen undercover policemen disguised as illegal immigrants, went into the canyons at night and waited to be attacked. When it happened, they made arrests, or tried to. Given the environment, it was only a matter of time before deadly force was used by both sides in what became a running guerrilla war.

The following represents most of the actual exchanges of gunfire that took place during the unit’s existence. I will present as much information as I know, and make a few observations at the end, but leave gamers to draw their own conclusions as to hit probabilities and weapon lethality.

1. February 1, 1976

Sergeant Lopez (the Task Force supervisor) and Officer Castillo encountered two suspects near the Mexican border deep in the canyons. One was a well-dressed man armed with a .45-caliber automatic, the other dressed in rags and apparently unarmed. At close range (a few yards) the gunman covered the two officers with his automatic, first pointing it at Sergeant Lopez. Both officers squated on the ground and continued their pretense that they were illegal immigrants. When the gunman shifted the pistol to his left hand and turned it on Officer Chacon, Sergeant Lopez quickly reached into his clothing, drew the .38 special snub nosed revolver from his shoulder holster, and fired all five rounds at the gunman in rapid succession. (The weapon was apparently a Smith & Wesson Model 36 Chief’s Special, which holds only five rounds in the cylinder.) Several rounds hit the gunman and jerked him around. As he twisted to the side, Officer Castillo drew his own pistol and shot the gunman once as he fell to the ground.

The second suspect began to flee, Officer Castillo fired again, and that suspect also fell to the ground. Castillo ran to the prone suspect and, overcome by an adrenaline reaction, lost control and began beating him.

The gunman, it turned out, was Officer Luis Tamez of the Mexican Immigration service and the ragged suspect was reported to be his informant. The exact reason why Officer Tamez was on the US side of the border and what his intentions were remained a source of controversy.

Of the six shots fired at point blank range at Tamez (five by Lopez and one by Castillo), five hit. Two bullets struck him in the groin, one hit him in the right chest directly over the nipple, one hit his arm, and one hit his buttock as he spun around and fell to the ground. Of all of these, the chest wound was the most visible, as Tamez’s shirt immediately became soaked with blood, but it did the least damage, as the .38 Special bullet bounced off Tamez’s ribcage and did only superficial damage. The two groin hits were the the most dangerous, and all of the participants were convinced that Tamez was dying. Since cross-winds were too strong to allow a helicopter to land in the canyons, the two officers tried to manhandle Tamez up the steep wall, but Tamez found it so painful to be dragged over the rocks that he demanded to be laid down and then got up, pushed the officers away, and climbed out of the canyon under his own power.

Both of the wounded men recovered completely.

2. March 23, 1976

Officers Chacon, Vasquez, Salgado, Castillo, and Gil were together in Deadman’s Canyon sitting on the banks of a shallow dry streambed when they were approached by two suspects. Officer Chacon was on one side of the ditch and the others were on the opposite side, their legs dangling over the edge. The suspects approached from Chacon’s side. One suspect, later identified as Morales, was armed with a pistol and other, identified as Madrid, was armed with a long-bladed knife.

All of the police officers were armed; most of them had two revolvers. Castillo had three revolvers and a shotgun. Several of them also wore bullet-proof vests. Of the five officers, two were combat veterans - both Salgado and Gil were Marine NCO’s with extensive combat experience in Vietnam and both were former drill instructors. Gil had also been all-Marine Judo Champion.

Morales covered the officers with his pistol and ordered them to put their hands up. Madrid jumped to the other side of the streambed to search them for valuables, still believing them to be illegal immigrants. All of the officers and suspects were now thoroughly mingled and all were probably within three or four meters of each other.

Officer Castillo, armed with a short pump shotgun under his coat, was probably the first to fire. He pointed the shotgun at Morales and fired, hitting him in the gun hand and blowing most of the fingers off, disarming him in the process. All of the other officers except for Gil drew their revolvers and began firing. Chacon and Vasquez both emptied their revolvers in rapid sucession. Gil (the former judo champ) dove at Morales just as he was hit by the shotgun blast, and Morales, riddled with bullets, fell on top of Gil in the bottom of the ditch.

The second suspect ran into the night pursued by Chacon and Vasquez, still firing. After a brief chase the second suspect fell wounded.

The first bandit lay on top of Gill, apparently dead. In addition to the shattered hand from Castillo’s shotgun, he had received seven other bullet wounds at point blank range: one each to the right shoulder, left lower chest, left side of the back, upper spine, left elbow, and two over the right clavicle. Amazingly, he was still live.

The second bandit was shot three times, once in each leg by pistol shots and once straight through the neck, from one side to the other, by a stray buckshot pellet.

Two of the officers were wounded. Castillo, shortly after firing his shotgun, had reached out to grab the wounded suspect and had been shot straight through the wrist, and was almost immediately incapacitated by pain. Gill, as he dove for Morales, was shot in the hip. Both officers were inadvertently shot by officer Chacon, firing across the ditch from the other side.

All four injured men survived and recovered.

3. July 9, 1976

Sergeant Lopez and officers Cervantes, Puente, and Camacho (in that order from south to north) were concealed in a drainage pipe at the south end of the E-2 canyon, less than a dozen meters north of the international border. Officer Chacon was concealed outside of the pipe to observe the approach of any suspects. All were armed with revolvers and Officer Camacho had a pump-action shotgun as well.

About an hour after dusk a suspect in a ski mask approached the south end of the pipe. The suspect, in a remarkable display of strength, seized Sergeant Lopez by the arm, pulled him bodily from the pipe, and dragged him down a slope into a ravine where there were three other suspects.

At the bottom of the ravine Sergeant Lopez was surrounded by four suspects, all apparently armed and covering him. The suspect to his left held a rifle (although this later turned out to be a dummy). The suspect in front of him and another to his right covered him with pistols. The leader of the group, the man in the ski mask, (and later identified as “Lobo”) held Lopez’s shooting arm in a vice-like grip and held a knife in his free hand. While Lobo still held his shooting arm, Lopez managed to get his hand to his wasteband and draw his 5-shot Model-36 and quickly emptied it in a semicircle around him: one shot to the man holding the rifle, then one at the man in front of him, then one into Lobo, holding his arm, then the last two bullets at the man to his right. At this point the suspects scattered and began to flee, except for Lobo, struggling with Lopez.

Officer Cervantes scrambled out of the south end of the pipe and fired one round at the fleeing suspects with his revolver while Officer Camacho crawled out of the north end of the pipe and fired twice with his shotgun, dropping one of the fleeing suspects (who later rose and continued to flee). Camacho then dropped his shotgun, drew his pistol, and fired five more shots at the fleeing suspects. Officer Cervantes pursued a suspect for several meters into Mexico, fired one more shot at him, and then returned. As he returned, one of the suspects fired first four pistol shots at the officers from out of the darkness and later fired a fifth. Officer Chacon shortly afterwards heard four other shots fired at them from a different direction.

The officers fired a total of two shotgun shells and about a dozen pistol shots. Of these, apparently one shotgun shell and two pistol shots scored hits. Lopez’s point-blank shot at the bandit leader had broken his thigh and lodged in his hip, incapacitating him. None of the other suspects were captured, although two were later seen wounded. (One was admited to a Mexican hospital with his leg badly lacerated by buckshot. He was arrested by Mexican police. The other burst into a party, his chest soaked with blood, then fled again. He was never apprehended, nor was the fourth suspect.)

Of the nine rounds fired at the police, none hit.

4. July 19, 1976

Officers Salgado, Camacho, and Chacon were acting as decoys near the border when they were spotted by two officers of the Tijuana Municipal Police, officers Hernandez and Espindola, who considered their actions suspicious and investigated with revolvers drawn, using their flashlights. A second Task Force team, consisting of Sergeant Lopez and officers Puente, Vasquez, and Castillo, were nearby under cover and were soon also seen by Officer Hernandez, who considered their actions atypical of illegal border crossers and suspected that they were criminals. The two task force teams joined up by a gully as Hernandez climbed down to confront them. At his point Sergeant Lopez, believing the two Tijuana poliemen were trying to extort money from border crossers, jumped down from his side of the ravine to face Hernandez, held up his badge in his left hand and his revolver in his right, and yelled “Policia! Policia!” All of the Task Force members drew and pointed their guns as Officer Espindola screamed the unneccessary warning to Hernandez,”He’s got a gun!”

Hernandez, instead of firing, raised his pistol and struck Lopez in the chest with the barrel, knocking him down. Later everyone would have a different impression of who fired first. Hernandez got off five rounds before collapsing under a hail of San Diego Police fire, and his partner Espindolo emptied his pistol (aparently a ten-round automatic) as he scrambled back toward their squad car. The Task Force members all fired, and fired a total of one shotgun round and thirty-three pistol rounds. These broke down as follows:

Fired At Hernandez: 14 pistol shots from Puente, Castillo, Camacho, Chacon, and Lopez.

Fired At Espindolo: 19 pistol shots from Salgado, Castillo (his second pistol), Vasquez, Camacho, and Chacon (his second pistol).

Fired At Both: One shotgun shell fromVasquez in the general direction of both officers (after which the shotgun jammed and Vasquez drew his pistol).

Three officers were wounded in the incident.

Espindolo was hit four times: once in the leg and then three more times in the back as he crawled back toward his squad car. He reached his squad car and drove away for help. Taken to a hopital, he recovered from his wounds and later returned to duty.

Hernandez, the closer of the two, was hit twice, and ballistics tests showed that both bullets were fired by Officer Chacon. Amazingly, Lopez, lying at Hernandez’ feet, had missed with all three shots he fired. One of Chacon’s bullets hit Hernandez in the abdomen and the other hit him in the arm. He attempted to crawl back across the border but was seized by the Task Force officers and arrested. He later recovered from his wounds and returned to duty.

Chacon was hit once in the upper arm, recovered fully, and returned to duty.

5. January 25, 1977

Sergent Lopez, officers Puente, Castillo, Chacon, and Vasquez encountered a group of three suspects who pretended to be undercover police and tried to extort money from them. When Puente moved to cut of the retreat of the bandits south, a suspect jumped on him with a long knife and began struggling. Officer Vasquez jumped on the back of the suspect and, fearing that he was about to stab Puente, put his snub-nosed .38 caliber Special against the back of the suspect’s head and fired once. The pistol shot instantly killed the assailant and temporarily blinded Vasquez. Puente had not even seen the knife.

At the same time one of the suspects lunged at Sergeant Lopez with a knife. Lopez fired once at the suspect at point-blank range, and then fired again as the suspect dashed by him. Lopez then emptied his pisol at the fleeing suspect and when that had no effect began to pursue him on foot. Eventually he overtook the suspect and overpowered him. After the struggle the suspect noticed, for the first time, that he had been wounded once in the elbow.

The third suspect was facing Officer Chacon, who this night was armed with a shotgun. Chacon raised the shotgun and, at a range nearly close enough to touch the suspect with his hand, discharged the shotgun once directly into the center of the suspect’s chest. The suspect stood for a moment looking at him, then turned around and walked calmly away into the darkness. Unsure whether he had somehow missed the target or the suspect was wearing some form of body armor, Chacon followed him cautiously and soon found him lying peacefully on the ground, dead of massive chest injuries. (San Diego Police Lieutenant Richard Snider would later describe the wound as, “…a hole in his chest you could throw a cat through.”)

Observations

In the five incidents presented above, Task Force officers fired about ninety rounds, most of them at close range, and scored 29 hits, or 32%. Of even more interest are the eight shots fired while effectively in physical contact with the target (one shot by Lopez at the leader “Lobo” in incident three, 3 shots by Lopez at Hernandez in incident four, and in incident five 2 of Lopez’s 5 shots at his suspect, Chacon’s 1 shot and Vasquez’s 1 shot). Of these eight shots, only four were hits, or 50%. Finally, it is intersting how many of the casualties were achieved by one man, Chacon. Although he apparently did not fire or score hits in incident three and was not present for incident one, he hit with his only shot in the fifth incident, was the only officer to hit Hernandez in the fourth incident, and actually scored at least one, and perhaps more, hits on every man (including the two friendly officers) wounded in the second incident.

As to bullet lethality, a total of fifteen officers and suspects were wounded in these five incidents, and they were hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were struck by a single bullet; four were struck by muliple bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single, almost instantly fatal, wound.

There are not enough cases here to provide the statistical basis for a complete small arms combat system, but there is plenty of food for thought. The breakdown of the hits by body area is shown on the following chart. The first column shows the body area. The second shows the number of hits to that area. The third shows the proportion of the total hits sufered by that body area. The fourth shows the number of fatal wounds to that body area. The last column shows the proportion of wounds to that area which were fatal.

Area           Total Hits  Of All  Fatal    Fatal
Head & Neck:   2.06         1        .5
Chest:         11*         .34       1        .09
Abdomen:       4 *         .13       0        .0
Limbs:         15          .47       0        .0
All Combined   32          1         2        .06

* The chest and abdomen totals assume that of the three shots taken by Officer Espindolo in the back, 2 were in the chest and 1 in the abdomen.

Reference:

Wambaugh, Joseph, Lines & Shadows. 1984. ISBN 0-688-02619-2